Key Findings
- A viable alternative to India’s current adversarial approach exists: the “well-wisher” model based on mutual respect, non-interference, and genuine partnership
- India’s actual interests—security, trade, regional influence—are served by a stable and prosperous Bangladesh, not a destabilized or subordinate one
- The bilateral relationship features $14 billion in trade, 70+ institutional mechanisms, and deep people-to-people ties that benefit both nations
- Win-win outcomes are achievable on Teesta, CEPA, border management, and connectivity—if India abandons its zero-sum approach
- Bangladesh’s rise strengthens rather than threatens India; a prosperous neighbor is an asset, not a liability
The Bangladesh-India relationship has been framed as a zero-sum competition: India’s gain is Bangladesh’s loss; Bangladeshi sovereignty means reduced Indian influence; any assertion of independence constitutes anti-India alignment.
This framing is both false and destructive. A genuine alternative exists—one that serves India’s interests while respecting Bangladesh’s sovereignty. The question is whether New Delhi has the strategic imagination to pursue it.
The “Big Brother” Model (Current Approach)
India’s current Bangladesh policy operates on implicit assumptions:
- Control over partnership: India prefers allies it can direct rather than partners it must negotiate with
- Leverage over cooperation: Economic dependencies are tools for coercion, not bases for mutual benefit
- Interference over respect: India’s security requires influence over Bangladesh’s domestic politics
- Short-term dominance over long-term relationship: Immediate tactical gains matter more than generational partnership
The results are visible: anti-India sentiment at historic highs, security cooperation collapsing, trade disrupted, and Bangladesh actively seeking alternatives to Indian dependence.
The “Well-Wisher” Model (Alternative)
The alternative approach starts from different premises:
- Partnership over control: India works with Bangladesh’s democratic choices rather than against them
- Mutual benefit over leverage: Economic interdependence creates shared prosperity, not one-sided dependency
- Respect over interference: Bangladesh’s sovereignty is genuine; its internal affairs are its own
- Long-term investment over short-term extraction: Generational relationships require generational thinking
This is not idealism. It is strategic rationality grounded in mutual interest.
What India Actually Gains
Consider India’s genuine strategic interests—not electoral narratives, but actual national interests:
Security
India’s Northeast insurgencies were contained through Bangladesh’s cooperation. A hostile Bangladesh reverses this achievement. A partnered Bangladesh maintains it.
Big Brother approach: Destabilize Bangladesh → lose security cooperation → insurgent revival → decades of counterinsurgency costs
Well-Wisher approach: Respect sovereignty → maintain partnership → continued security cooperation → stable Northeast
Economic
Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia. Bilateral trade reached $14 billion in FY2023-24. A growing Bangladesh means expanding markets for Indian goods and services.
Big Brother approach: Economic coercion → trade disruption → market contraction → lost opportunities
Well-Wisher approach: CEPA implementation → trade expansion → market growth → mutual prosperity
Regional Influence
India’s standing in the Indo-Pacific depends on demonstrating responsible regional leadership. Bullying neighbors undermines this.
Big Brother approach: Coercive behavior → neighborhood backlash → reputation damage → reduced credibility with global partners
Well-Wisher approach: Respectful engagement → regional goodwill → enhanced reputation → strengthened partnerships
China Competition
China’s influence expands when India creates vacuums. A hostile Bangladesh seeks alternatives; a partnered Bangladesh has less reason to.
Big Brother approach: Alienate Bangladesh → accelerate Chinese penetration → lose strategic competition
Well-Wisher approach: Genuine partnership → reduced Chinese opportunity → maintained influence
What Bangladesh Gains
The well-wisher model is not one-sided. Bangladesh benefits substantially:
| Area | Current State | Well-Wisher Alternative |
|---|---|---|
| Teesta Water | Stalled for 14 years | Fair-share agreement respecting both nations’ needs |
| Border Killings | Continued BSF violence | Zero-tolerance policy; joint border management |
| Trade Access | Non-tariff barriers; transit disputes | CEPA implementation; seamless connectivity |
| Visa Services | Reduced to 1,500/day from peaks of 4,000+ | Normalized people-to-people movement |
| Political Respect | Interference in domestic affairs | Non-interference regardless of government |
Bangladesh is not asking for charity. It is asking for the treatment India accords to neighbors it cannot coerce.
The Achievable Agenda
Concrete opportunities for win-win outcomes exist:
1. Teesta Water Sharing
The Teesta agreement has been “ready” since 2011. West Bengal’s objections have blocked implementation, but the framework exists.
Win-Win Path: India provides guaranteed dry-season flows; Bangladesh gains water security; joint management optimizes the resource for both.
2. Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)
Both governments have agreed to pursue CEPA. Implementation would expand market access, reduce transaction costs, and create jobs in both countries.
Win-Win Path: India gains expanded access to 170-million consumer market; Bangladesh gains preferential access to world’s fifth-largest economy; both benefit from integrated supply chains.
3. Connectivity
The pre-August 2024 connectivity achievements—rail links, road corridors, waterways—benefited both nations. Suspension hurts both.
Win-Win Path: Restore passenger rail services; operationalize remaining corridor agreements; extend power grid integration; resume medical tourism facilitation.
4. Border Management
BSF killings of Bangladeshi civilians have been a persistent irritant. India has committed to “non-lethal” measures repeatedly without implementation.
Win-Win Path: Joint patrolling protocols; non-lethal enforcement standards; accountability mechanisms for violations; reduced rather than eliminated border security.
5. Sanctuary and Justice
The Hasina question will not resolve itself. But frameworks exist for managing such situations.
Win-Win Path: India facilitates rather than obstructs Bangladesh’s transitional justice process; Bangladesh provides fair trial guarantees that address international standards; both nations demonstrate commitment to rule of law.
The Medical Tourism Example
The Mindset Shift
The well-wisher model requires a fundamental mindset shift in New Delhi:
From Hierarchy to Partnership
India is larger than Bangladesh. This is geographic fact, not diplomatic entitlement. Effective relationships with smaller neighbors require treating them as partners, not subordinates.
China is larger than India. Would India accept from Beijing the treatment it extends to Dhaka?
From Control to Influence
Influence earned through partnership is more durable than control imposed through coercion. India’s influence in Bangladesh during the 2009-2024 period was substantial—and entirely dependent on Hasina remaining in power. When she fell, India’s influence evaporated.
Genuine influence—rooted in economic interdependence, cultural affinity, and institutional relationships—survives government changes. Controlled influence does not.
From Zero-Sum to Positive-Sum
Bangladesh’s rise does not threaten India. A prosperous Bangladesh:
- Buys more Indian goods
- Sends fewer illegal migrants
- Has more capacity for security cooperation
- Provides more stable investment environment
Bangladesh’s prosperity is India’s interest. This should not be a difficult concept.
The Regional Precedent
India’s well-wisher approach has succeeded elsewhere—when New Delhi chose to apply it:
Bhutan represents India’s most successful neighborhood relationship. It is based on:
- Genuine respect for Bhutanese sovereignty
- Economic assistance without political conditions
- Security cooperation through partnership, not coercion
- Long-term investment in relationship-building
The result: Bhutan maintains close ties with India by choice, not compulsion.
The Bangladesh relationship could achieve similar success—if India applied similar principles.
The Choice
India faces a strategic choice:
Path A (Current): Continue destabilization, harbor fugitives, apply economic pressure, and pursue short-term electoral gains. Result: hostile neighbor, collapsed security cooperation, Chinese penetration, generational damage.
Path B (Alternative): Reset relationship on partnership basis, resolve outstanding issues, respect sovereignty, and invest in long-term ties. Result: stable neighbor, sustained cooperation, maintained influence, regional leadership.
The choice is India’s. But the consequences affect both nations.
The Bottom Line
This Delta Dispatch represents the analysis of the Inqilab Delta Forum research team.